Kenya wheat production is falling as farmers abandon the crop in favor of barley and canola. Consequently, the supply deficit is widening, and the country is increasingly relying on imports. This trend could also put further pressure on the shilling exchange rate, which has remained around Ksh129 per US dollar for over a year.
Kenya produces only eight percent of its annual wheat demand, while the remaining 92 percent comes from imports. In 2023, local production reached 135,000 tonnes, whereas consumption hit 2.2 million tonnes, rising steadily over the past five years. Therefore, the country depends heavily on foreign suppliers, mainly Russia, Argentina, and Canada.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the area under wheat cultivation to drop 9.1 percent to 100,000 hectares in the 2025/26 market year. As a result, wheat output will fall 5.6 percent because farmers are responding to complications with the domestic support program. Meanwhile, demand is projected to rise 2.6 percent to 2.73 million tonnes.
Private traders and millers hold Kenya’s wheat stocks, which are set to decline nine percent to 508,000 tonnes. Thus, the country will continue to rely on imports, with USDA forecasting 2.45 million tonnes in 2025/26 to meet domestic demand.
Several factors are driving the shrinking wheat area. For instance, farmers are shifting to alternative crops, quelea bird infestations raise production costs, and land subdivision reduces farm sizes. In 2024, wheat acreage fell 1.83 percent to 102,287 hectares. However, production rose slightly by 0.48 percent to 310,973 tonnes due to favorable weather and subsidized fertilizer.
In contrast, barley cultivation is expanding. The area increased five percent to 13,929 hectares in 2024, and production surged 47.6 percent to 48,237 tonnes. Moreover, barley imports rose 14 percent to 1.87 million tonnes to fill the local consumption gap.
Large-scale farmers dominate wheat production in Meru, Laikipia, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, and Narok counties. Under the East African Community (EAC) framework, millers who buy local wheat first pay a reduced import duty of 10 percent. Otherwise, they pay the full 35 percent EAC Common External Tariff, while imports from EAC countries remain duty-free.
In 2024, wheat imports fell to 1.81 million tonnes from 1.99 million tonnes in 2023. Therefore, government interventions under the Wheat Purchase Programme prioritized local procurement and stabilized the market.
Ultimately, the decline in Kenya wheat production shows that domestic food security faces growing challenges. Consequently, policymakers must implement measures that stabilize supply, support local producers, and reduce dependence on imports.
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