The Uganda 2025/26 budget reflects a bold vision for economic transformation. Finance Minister Matia Kasaija outlined this direction while presenting the fiscal plan on behalf of President Museveni. He spoke of an expanding economy and a strong foundation to implement the Fourth National Development Plan. Although the budget outlines robust allocations to key sectors, some experts remain cautious about how far the figures translate into lived realities.
Kasaija emphasized improvements in peace, security, healthcare, and education as pillars of progress. He highlighted increased cash flow among citizens, improved life expectancy, better roads, and reduced poverty. The minister projected that Uganda’s economy would grow to Shs254.2 trillion ($66.1 billion) in FY2025/26, raising GDP per capita to $1,324, up from $1,263 this financial year.
He addressed Ugandan women directly, noting that the Uganda 2025/26 budget allocates funds for maternal healthcare, immunization, clean water access, and education. Additionally, it supports women-owned businesses to grow sustainably. However, analysts question whether the on-ground reality aligns with such optimism.
Aloysious Kittengo of SEATINI Uganda believes that without targeted investments in people, the benefits may remain out of reach for many. He called for deliberate policies to raise household income, thus increasing tax contributions through economic participation.
Economist Pascal Muhangi from CSBAG agreed, stressing that to manage Uganda’s rising public debt, the government must fuel production across communities. He added that as exports grow—especially in gold, coffee, and oil—so should GDP to sustain debt loads. According to him, the budget’s success depends on balancing borrowing with productive output.
Over the last 15 years, Kasaija reported economic growth from Shs64.8 trillion ($27.9 billion) to Shs226.3 trillion ($61.1 billion). Life expectancy improved to 68.2 years in FY2023/24, up from 50.4 years in 2002. Health access expanded, with 91% of people now living within five kilometers of a health facility. Furthermore, 81% of parishes have government-aided schools.
Kasaija cited poverty reduction, now at 16.1%, and a shift from subsistence living for 33% of the population, compared to 69% in 2010. He praised President Museveni’s leadership for investing over Shs9 trillion into wealth creation initiatives. These include the Uganda Development Bank (Shs1.45 trillion), the Parish Development Model (Shs3.3 trillion), Emyooga (Shs553 billion), and the Uganda Women Entrepreneurship Programme (Shs168 billion), among others.
Infrastructure development stands out as another success. Ugandans can now travel to all borders on tarmac roads. Electricity generation quadrupled to 2,051 megawatts in FY2023/24, up from 595 megawatts in 2010. As a result, 57% of the population has access to power, up from 11%.
Digital expansion followed suit. Internet coverage rose to 53% in 2022, compared to just 1.8% in 2010. The national ICT Backbone now stretches 4,300 kilometers.
Uganda’s economy has also diversified. In addition to the traditional cash crops—coffee, cotton, tea, and tobacco—the country now exports 31 new products, including processed foods, pharmaceuticals, cement, and ceramics. Inflation remains low at 3.4%, and the Ugandan shilling remains stable. Interest rates dropped to 17.7% from 18.1%, easing borrowing conditions.
Kasaija reported that exports reached $11.8 billion by March 2025, up from $9.56 billion the previous year. Goods alone contributed $9.3 billion, a 26% year-on-year growth.
The Uganda 2025/26 budget allocates Shs11.44 trillion to health, education, social protection, and water. In healthcare, Shs5.8 trillion will support Health Centre IVs, e-health infrastructure, nutrition, and specialized hospitals. Education receives Shs5.04 trillion, supporting millions under UPE, USE, and the higher education loan scheme. The government will also continue social support through programs like SAGE, which aided over 500,000 older Ugandans.
To support wealth creation, the government allocated Shs1.05 trillion to PDM and another Shs50 billion to the Agriculture Credit Facility.
Real estate stakeholders like Judy Rugasira of Knight Frank see potential in the Uganda 2025/26 budget. With GDP growth at 7% and infrastructure improvements, demand for residential, commercial, and industrial properties could rise. Roads, electricity, and water access in towns like Hoima, Lira, and Kasese will unlock new areas for development.
However, Rugasira warned about the new rental tax reforms. The URA allows only a flat 50% deduction on rental income, even if real costs are higher. This burdens property owners, especially those with commercial units that have high maintenance costs. Additionally, taxes on accrued (rather than collected) rent strain landlords already facing defaults.
The new compliance systems like EFRIS further complicate matters. Rugasira recommends adjusting the tax regime to reflect actual costs or increasing the allowable deductions. Without reform, property investment may suffer despite the positive outlook.
Public feedback on the Uganda 2025/26 budget is mixed. Residents like King James from Isingiro praised the health sector’s attention, noting its critical role in development. Others, such as Julius Kayiira of Jinja, worry about Uganda’s high debt and limited room for service delivery. Achen Judith from Gulu sees value in proposed tax waivers for new businesses, while Linus Kayia from Yumbe feels local governments are underfunded. Teachers like Swadick Ayisuga remain disappointed, believing the budget fails to address wage gaps between science and arts educators.
In summary, the Uganda 2025/26 budget presents a hopeful outlook backed by strong allocations and economic indicators. Nevertheless, for it to deliver real change, implementation must match the ambition, and policy must adapt to evolving economic realities.
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