In an article by Roger Southall, African rulers are drawn to the mercenary group Wagner for several reasons. Wagner’s fighters are known for their quick deployment and ability to swiftly apply force with sophisticated weaponry.
Other sources of military support in Africa have their drawbacks: United Nations missions often lack strong mandates, African Union forces face challenges due to limited access to arms and motivation, and European Union interventions are often viewed through the lens of colonial history. The United States, meanwhile, has limited interests in Africa beyond countering Salafi terrorists.
The Wagner Group, established in 2014 by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is a private military company that allegedly supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine that same year. While Prigozhin’s connection to the group remains somewhat mysterious, it is believed that he operated with the permission of Russian President Vladimir Putin. While their interests may have differed at times, they ultimately aligned closely.
However, the recent Wagner rebellion that began in June 2023 has cast uncertainty over the group’s future in Africa. If the rebellion is successfully suppressed by Putin, Wagner mercenaries are likely to come under the command of the regular Russian military. Even if Putin were to be overthrown, Russia would still maintain its interests in African minerals and seek support from African countries at the United Nations.
Drawing from years of observing great power competition in Africa, it is expected that Wagner will continue to bring suffering to the continent in various forms. The presence of Wagner is unlikely to be stopped by external forces, as certain African actors, both state and non-state, benefit from its presence. The African Union’s silence on the issue indicates a passive stance, reflecting a deeper ambivalence toward Russia and Russian imperialism.
Overall, Wagner’s activities have had little positive impact on the lives of Africans. Instead, they have strengthened dictators, undermined democracies, prolonged civil conflicts, caused civilian casualties, exploited natural resources for Russia’s gain, and hindered alternative investment options apart from China.
Wagner’s misdeeds include aiding abusive regimes such as Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir, helping nascent dictatorships consolidate power, involvement in the civil war in Libya, engaging in combat in the Central African Republic (CAR), and being hired by the Mozambican government to fight an al-Shabaab-linked group. Indiscriminate killings of civilians and insurgents have been reported in various locations where Wagner operates.
Several factors contribute to Wagner’s involvement in Africa. Firstly, the Russian government has been actively seeking military bases on the continent, even prior to Wagner’s engagement. Russia has existing military cooperation agreements with 18 African countries, ranging from democracies to unstable regions like Eastern Libya, which has become a logistics hub for Russia and Wagner.
Secondly, Russia employs its propaganda apparatus to spread misinformation about the US and Europe in Africa, in support of its actions in Ukraine.
Thirdly, profit is a motivator. In addition to government payments, Wagner has secured agreements for exclusive access to valuable resources such as gold, diamonds, and uranium in the countries where it operates, including the CAR, Mali, and Sudan.
Opposition to Wagner’s activities in Africa is unlikely to come from major forces within or outside the continent. Individual beneficiaries of Wagner’s presence hinder action against its mercenary activities, which are prohibited under international law. The African Union lacks the consensus needed for collective action, and regional economic communities have not taken an anti-Wagner stance. Additionally, ambivalence toward Russia among some African countries, as demonstrated by voting patterns in the UN General Assembly, further complicates the situation.
South Africa, which could potentially take a stand against Wagner, is unlikely to do so due to its nostalgia for Soviet assistance during the apartheid era and its appreciation of Russia and China as counterbalances to perceived Western dominance. Western condemnation of Wagner may be ineffective or even counterproductive due to historical factors. The United States has limited means to deter Wagner, given its limited focus on the continent, and France has scaled back its presence in Africa.
China, as the only relevant external power in Africa, is unlikely to constrain Wagner. China and Russia have aligned their interests during the Ukraine War, and China has significant business interests in African states, particularly Francophone and Lusophone countries where it sources minerals.
Lastly, China has deployed its own private security companies in Africa primarily for securing mineral access, although they are not yet directly involved in politics like Wagner. However, their presence helps legitimize the use of private security companies further.
Original document source: Opinion article by Roger Southall, published on The Conversation, titled “Why African rulers choose to send mercenaries: Putin, Wagner, and Africa” (September 24, 2021).
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